Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 137.714729 164.937489 198.142681 242.300768 300.535489 3.762674e+02 4.849117e+02
2025-03-09 101.668942 131.813899 172.907534 235.097710 330.843593 4.803250e+02 7.493555e+02
2025-03-16 81.476835 111.121100 154.585926 226.503483 350.539743 5.742767e+02 1.065059e+03
2025-03-23 74.269049 106.158526 156.251749 246.762102 422.413096 7.944783e+02 1.835730e+03
2025-03-30 65.905525 97.406357 149.424126 249.837326 463.682806 9.822119e+02 2.805236e+03
2025-04-06 60.386254 92.007302 146.690015 259.105219 521.623477 1.255713e+03 4.633874e+03
2025-04-13 54.215052 84.431985 138.471434 254.908269 546.922932 1.464723e+03 6.876438e+03
2025-04-20 52.114840 83.508671 142.195907 276.945485 650.516292 2.049360e+03 1.475124e+04
2025-04-27 49.849259 81.889254 144.175151 295.688282 757.628790 2.827693e+03 3.537078e+04
2025-05-04 47.425331 79.593102 144.296151 310.018817 861.994823 3.825817e+03 1.000148e+05
2025-05-11 44.871547 76.684839 142.568872 319.102013 956.230677 5.042195e+03 3.708426e+05
2025-05-18 42.174998 73.150365 138.857374 321.702711 1029.161724 6.385311e+03 2.257345e+06
2025-05-25 38.906596 68.244636 131.632686 313.288912 1056.338311 7.539545e+03 4.663443e+07
2025-06-01 36.033448 63.865123 125.034369 305.253119 1083.037708 8.933545e+03 NaN
2025-06-08 33.296596 59.487666 117.815779 293.421758 1084.442826 1.011573e+04 NaN
2025-06-15 32.918676 60.051166 122.609798 322.184975 1334.543194 1.824760e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 31.385178 57.939251 120.401167 326.577535 1451.514325 2.603129e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 30.354505 56.824948 120.580335 339.833474 1649.949788 4.364606e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 28.661046 54.055466 115.999354 333.823925 1703.476655 5.778426e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 28.446230 54.632194 120.526007 365.512534 2124.401078 1.591173e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 28.012777 54.650921 123.531394 392.716286 2584.048645 5.612417e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 27.377029 54.120685 124.889293 413.667360 3050.325025 3.122987e+06 NaN
2025-08-03 26.562277 53.076037 124.573571 427.013210 3479.087607 5.843340e+07 NaN